What’s Really Happening With Home Prices

After years of rapid home price growth, many hopeful buyers are wondering: Is the housing market finally going to crash? With affordability stretched thin and headlines warning of doom, it’s a fair question. But according to David Norris of the Norris Mortgage Team, the data tells a much different story.

Why the Housing Market Isn’t Set to Crash

Despite all the buzz on social media, most experts—like Freddie Mac and economists across the board—aren’t forecasting a housing crash. Why not? It comes down to two simple fundamentals: strong demand and very limited inventory.

“We’re still seeing more buyers than homes for sale in most markets,” says David Norris. “That imbalance is what’s keeping prices supported, even if they’re not rising as fast as they were in 2021 or 2022.”

Housing inventory remains historically low, and homebuilders haven't fully caught up with demand from millennials and Gen Z entering the market. Until that changes, a dramatic drop in home values is unlikely.

Slower Growth Isn’t a Crash

Yes, price growth is cooling—but that’s a correction from the unsustainable surges during the pandemic, not a crash. In most regions, home values are still increasing, just at a more measured pace.

According to David Norris, “A lot of buyers are hoping for prices to fall 20% before they jump in, but that kind of drop would require a major shift in supply or demand—and we’re just not seeing that.”

Some overheated markets may experience mild price corrections, especially where prices far outpaced local income growth. But overall, the market remains resilient.

Real Estate Is Always Local

While national trends matter, it’s important to remember that real estate is hyper-local. A market correction in one city doesn’t mean a crash everywhere.

“We help clients analyze their local market conditions, not just what’s trending online,” explains David Norris on NorrisMortgageTeam.com. “That’s how you make smart, informed buying decisions.”

If you’re in an area with steady job growth, good schools, and limited housing supply, odds are home values will remain stable or continue to grow.

Focus on Strategy, Not Headlines

If you're thinking about buying, waiting for the “perfect moment” or a market crash could backfire. Home prices may not fall significantly—and interest rates could rise again, making your future mortgage more expensive.

Instead of trying to time the bottom, David Norris encourages buyers to focus on what they can control: “Look for the right home that fits your lifestyle and your monthly budget. That’s how you win long-term.”

The Bottom Line

A 2008-style housing crash? Very unlikely. Slower price growth? Absolutely—but that’s a sign of a healthier, more balanced market.

If you’re waiting on the sidelines hoping for a huge drop in prices, you may be waiting a long time. Now is the time to get informed, explore your options, and make a move that fits your life—not just the headlines.

Sources: Realtor.com, FreddieMac.com, CNBC.com, NAR.realtor